Moana 2’s Oscar Nomination Odds Increase With Box Office Records

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Moana 2‘s historic weekend at the box office is not only filling Disney’s coffers but bolstering its case for an Oscar nomination.

The movie has shattered record after record since its launch on Thanksgiving eve, serving up a massive $221 million for the five-day weekend, including $135.3 million from Friday to Sunday. That could help its bid to break into a crowded animation field, with some Academy voters looking more favorably upon blockbusters or the movie simply benefiting from being culturally top-of-mind.

In recent years, major animation hits such as Spider-Man: Across the Spiderverse, The Boy and the Heron and Toy Story 4 have all been nominated for best animated feature; the latter two won.

The first Moana was nominated for best animated feature after its release in 2016. But experts have seen that as a more slippery proposition this year, with The Wild Robot, Inside Out: 2, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, Memoir of a Snail and Piece by Piece helping to make it an unusually deep and diverse year for animated films. The latest Feinberg Forecast has the new Moana on the outside looking in, and critics have been more lukewarm on it too; the film is at 65 percent on Rotten Tomatoes, a full 30 points lower than its predecessor.

Still, the box office could help — especially since expectations were so much lower than the results. Heading into the holiday, Walt Disney Animation’s sequel was tracking to open at $125 million-$135 million for the five-day weekend compared to the $221 million it finished with. But demand proved high for the continued adventures of the fearless Moana, voiced once again by Auli’i Cravalho, and the demigod Maui, voiced again by Dwayne Johnson. Directed by David Derrick Jr., Jason Hand and Dana Ledoux Miller, the sequel follows the young heroine as she embarks on an unexpected adventure in long-lost waters after receiving a call from her ancestors.

The film easily beat the previous five-day-weekend opening record of $204 million held by 2023’s The Super Mario Bros. Movie. For the five-day Thanksgiving weekend, the new Moana sailed past the previous record of $125 million held by Frozen II, albeit in that film’s second weekend. Moana 2 also now holds the record for biggest three-day debut of a Disney Animation film, also previously held by Frozen II. All of the numbers are not adjusted for inflation.

Overseas, Moana 2 started off with $165.3 million for a global bow of $386.3 million, after coming in at No. 1 in pretty much every country it opened in save for China.

Moana‘s journey to becoming a franchise was unusual, to say the least. The original 2016 movie was a solid but not spectacular performer, and the sequel was originally developed as a Disney+ series. Then the original became a cultural phenomenon and the most-streamed movie across all platforms in 2023, according to Nielsen, leading to a retool as a feature film.

A total of 31 films are eligible for animated feature this year as the movies vie for five slots. In addition to members of the animation branch, other Academy members can choose to vote if they commit to watch a minimum number of films.

Oscar nominations will be announced Jan. 17.

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