Talk about a nail-biter.
Disney’s Mufasa: The Lion King and Paramount’s Sonic the Hedgehog 3 are in a close battle for the Christmas box office crown as a topsy-turvey year at the box office comes to a close.
Mufasa is tipped to win the long five-day holiday weekend (Wednesday through Sunday) with an estimated $61 million, versus an expected $59 million for the Sonic threequel. There’s a caveat, though — Sonic 3 could win the three-day weekend with an estimated $37.5 million, versus $34 million to $35 million for Mufasa.
Both titles opened last weekend, with Sonic 3 becoming an instant crowd-pleaser and handily beating Mufasa. The latter, however, began to pick up as families became more available.
They are hardly the only two movies making noise in what’s turning out to be a very merry Christmas for a flurry of films.
Robert Eggers and Focus Features’ new star-studded vampire pic Nosferatu, one of several films opening nationwide on Christmas Day, looks to post an impressive five-day opening of $39 million to $40 million. That’s well ahead of expectations. The male-skewing movie — starring Lily-Rose Depp, Nicholas Hoult and Bill Skarsgard — earned a B- CinemaScore, which isn’t bad for a horror title.
Rival specialty distributor Searchlight Pictures is also smiling. Timothée Chalamet’s critically acclaimed A Complete Unknown, also opening Wednesday, is likewise doing far more than expected and is on course to sing to $22 million for the five days. The film earned a perfect A CinemaScore from audiences (so far, the movie is skewing female and older).
A24’s much-buzzed-about Oscar hopeful Babygirl, starring Nicole Kidman, is eyeing a $7 million five-day opening after earning a B- CinemaScore. The distributor is also handling awards frontrunner The Brutalist, which is bypassing a nationwide release in favor of a traditional platform rollout that sees it debut in six locations this weekend. If estimates hold, it could post a pleasing location average in the $57,000 range.
Amazon MGM Studios’ A Fire Inside, penned by Mufasa director Barry Jenkins, is looking at a $4.2 million five-day opening.
Overall, the year-end has been good news for the box office, with the year-over-year deficit narrowing from 11 percent in mid-November to 4 percent now. The bonanza kicked off at Thanksgiving with the potent combo of Moana 2, Wicked and Gladiator II, all of which remain high up on the box office chart.
