With the Governors Awards just behind us, the Thanksgiving break right in front of us, every major awards hopeful having finally screened for pundits (the last one was unveiled on Wednesday evening) and the 97th Oscars exactly 100 days away, now seems as good a time as any to do a thorough temperature-check of the Oscar race.
Best picture
The main headline, at this point, is that there is no clear frontrunner, unlike a year ago when Oppenheimer was clearly ahead of the pack. Rather, there are, in my estimation, six films that look all but assured of landing one of the category’s 10 slots. Alphabetically, they are: Neon’s Anora, A24’s The Brutalist, Focus’ Conclave, Netflix’s Emilia Pérez, Paramount’s September 5 and Universal’s Wicked. Let’s discuss them one by one.
Anora, which won Cannes’ Palme d’Or, is Sean Baker’s portrait of a stripper-turned-sex worker from Brooklyn — played magnificently by breakout star Mikey Madison — whose life is jolted for the better, and then the worse, by a wealthy Russian client. This unusual variation of a Cinderella story, which blends drama, comedy and action, is tremendously entertaining and has gone over very well with critics and at the box office. But, some gripe, it drags a little during the pursuit portion. It doesn’t really seem to have anything larger to say about the world today (I suppose one could argue that it’s about economic inequality, but that feels like a bit of a stretch). And the Academy has never shown as much appreciation as film fest audiences and critics for Baker’s brilliant but quirky films, which heretofore have collectively landed just one nomination.
In The Brutalist, for which 36-year-old Brady Corbet won Venice’s best director prize, a Hungarian architect (The Pianist Oscar winner Adrien Brody) who survived the Holocaust immigrates to the U.S., only to discover that the American dream is not all it’s cracked up to be. Seven years in the making, it’s a remarkably ambitious project featuring outstanding performances, stunning production design and VistaVision cinematography — and when Q&A attendees learn that it was shot in just 33 days and for less than $10 million, they literally gasp. The biggest hurdle that it will have to overcome is its runtime of three-and-a-half hours, including a 15-minute intermission — some voters and members of the public weren’t even willing to make that commitment for Martin Scorsese films available on streaming services, so will they do so for this? Plus, a common refrain from those who do check it out is that its first half is stronger than its second.
Then, there’s Conclave from Edward Berger, the German director of the Oscar-winning 2022 version of All Quiet on the Western Front. It’s a riveting, edge-of-your-seat thriller about — believe it or not — the process of selecting a new pope. Adapted from Robert Harris’ 2016 novel, it is packed with juicy politicking, backstabbing and scandal — one person I know affectionately refers to it as The Real Housewives of the Vatican — and features a career-best performance by lead actor Ralph Fiennes as the Cardinal tasked with overseeing the proceedings, plus strong supporting appearances from Stanley Tucci, John Lithgow and Isabella Rossellini as others in his orbit. Enjoyment of the film can be undermined by hearing spoilers about its numerous shocking twists and turns — especially the one at the end, which is polarizing — so don’t wait too long to check it out.
Emilia Pérez sounds off the wall — it’s a French director’s Spanish-language film about a Mexican cartel leader who transitions from male to female, and it also happens to be a musical — but its uniqueness has enchanted many since its premiere in Cannes, where its four principal stars (Karla Sofía Gascón, Zoe Saldaña, Selena Gomez and Adriana Paz) were jointly awarded the best actress prize. It’s not everyone’s cup of tea — Film Twitter has numerous issues with it (not that their opposition hurt the Oscar prospects of Green Book, Bohemian Rhapsody or CODA), and many people are transphobic (see: Donald Trump’s campaign ads ahead of the election, followed by his victory). But Academy members are overwhelmingly left-leaning, and for them, a vote for Emilia Pérez is a way to not only support a film that they admire but also to send a middle finger to an incoming administration that they abhor.
This brings us to September 5, a film about ABC Sports’ coverage of the terrorist attack at the 1972 Olympics in Munich. Plenty of people have registered their disagreement about my belief in the film’s prospects — many of whom haven’t seen the film and don’t speak with Academy members, and some of whom have been plainly antisemitic in their comments. The fact of the matter is that when Academy members see it, they love it — it’s a fastball right down the middle of their strike zone, not unlike, say, Spotlight, another film about journalists and journalism that featured an outstanding ensemble. Now, we just need to wait and see if Paramount is able to mobilize enough of them to check it out. They are certainly making every effort, with producer Sean Penn, star Peter Sarsgaard’s brother-in-law Jake Gyllenhaal, Jim McKay’s son/TV exec Sean McManus and others joining the film’s principal talent on the campaign trail.
Then, there’s the Oscars’ great green hope: Wicked, the first installment of a two-part adaptation of the hit Broadway musical of the same name (part two is coming next year), which itself was inspired by The Wizard of Oz. The film was directed by Jon M. Chu and stars Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande. It will be released in theaters on Friday and — you’ll have to forgive me — it’s going to be popular. For that reason, the fine folks at the Academy and ABC are praying that it will be nominated for best picture, as that would certainly boost the telecast’s ratings. And the good news for them? The film is also excellent, somehow managing to appeal to both kids and adults, with perfectly cast stars, mind-blowing production value and tunes that have already stood the test of time. And, as Universal is happy to remind people, it plays a bit differently now than it did before the election, with a subtext about fascism that feels timely. But do voters based abroad know or care about the property?
Those are your top six. As for the remaining four slots? There are three that strike me as pretty likely to make the cut.
A24’s Sing Sing, the story of incarcerated men making art behind bars, reminds me of recent best picture winner CODA, in that it’s an arthouse film with a lot of heart and multiple Oscar-caliber performances (from Colman Domingo and Clarence Maclin) — and in that it probably faces more of an uphill climb to get nominated than it would face, should it get nominated, to actually win. The reason for this is that it came out a long time ago (July) and didn’t make a lot of money at the box office (less than $3 million worldwide), so it’s not necessarily high on voters’ watch-lists — but once voters get around to checking it out, they absolutely adore it.
Twenty-four years after Ridley Scott’s original Gladiator, which went on to win best picture, comes its Paul Mescal-led sequel, Paramount’s Gladiator II. The new film strikes me as every bit as entertaining and well-made; has been reviewed comparably (on Rotten Tomatoes the first is at 80 percent and the second is at 75 percent); and seems poised to be a similarly giant blockbuster (the first grossed nearly $500 million worldwide). It’s hard to imagine that the first would win, but the second, in an era with twice as many best picture slots, would not even be nominated.
Speaking of sequels in the race, there’s also Warners’ Dune: Part Two, which comes three years after Dune, which itself was nominated for best picture. Denis Villeneuve’s sequel made a big impression (it’s at 92 percent on Rotten Tomatoes) and a lot of money (it’s 2024’s fourth biggest hit). But it came out way back in March, its principal talent is largely promoting other films, and the trilogy’s third installment is still to come, so it’s not a complete certainty.
That leaves 11 titles battling it out for the last slot.
MUBI’s The Substance is a love-it-or-hate-it horror dramedy that is a biting sendup of Hollywood. Made on a mid-range budget ($17.5 million) and propelled by Demi Moore’s Oscar-worthy performance, it has exceeded all expectations at the box office (it’s coming up on the $70 million mark). It could end up being this year’s Saltburn — perhaps a bit too edgy for some Academy members — but I suspect that enough love it for it to have a real shot.
Searchlight, meanwhile, comes to the race with two legit contenders, A Real Pain and A Complete Unknown. I’ve learned over the years to think twice before betting against a “Holocaust movie” with the Academy, and while that’s a reductive way of describing A Real Pain, which is also very funny, I think the point stands. A Complete Unknown, meanwhile, is a fairly conventionally-structured but highly-engaging biopic built around a stunning lead performance from Timothée Chalamet as Bob Dylan.
Only three animated features have ever been nominated for best picture, none since 2010’s Toy Story 3, but two have a real shot this year: Universal/DreamWorks’s The Wild Robot and Disney/Pixar’s Inside Out 2. Inside Out 2 made an absolute fortune (its $1.7 billion worldwide gross is 2024’s highest), and its backers emphasize how its discussion of emotions has helped children and adults during a tumultuous time. The Wild Robot, which comes along in the 30th year of DreamWorks, has generated much less money ($309 million) but even more enthusiasm from critics and audiences (it’s at 98 percent on Rotten Tomatoes with both). Fun fact: 2015’s Inside Out was not nominated for best picture, but that was at a time when there could have been anywhere from five to 10 nominees, and there wound up being eight, so we can’t know if it might have finished ninth or tenth.
Then there’s a handful of movies that aren’t for everyone, but, if championed by critics groups, as may well happen, might need to be taken more seriously. These include Amazon/MGM’s Nickel Boys, the feature directorial debut of the Malickian filmmaker RaMell Ross; Janus/Sideshow’s All We Imagine as Light, which won Cannes’ second-place prize; Apple’s Blitz, the latest from 12 Years a Slave helmer Steve McQueen; and two from Sony Classics, I’m Still Here, a haunting Brazilian film, and The Room Next Door, Pedro Almodóvar’s first English-language feature, which won Venice’s top prize.
Lastly, there’s a bit of a question mark in Warners’ Juror No. 2, which might be the last film from the master Clint Eastwood, who is 94. The studio didn’t seem to have high hopes for the film, but it’s at 93 percent with critics and 91 percent with audiences on Rotten Tomatoes; the studio, having faced criticism for not doing right by a filmmaker who has made it a ton of money, is now scrambling to establish a campaign; and if Eastwood is able and willing to offer a few indications that awards recognition for the film would mean something to him, perhaps a Hail Mary could be completed.
Best director
For better or worse, the Academy’s directors branch marches to its own beat, as demonstrated in recent years by the people it nominated (a lot of non-American filmmakers) and didn’t (e.g. Barbie’s Greta Gerwig).
This cycle, it’s hard to imagine that the branch will not bestow first best director noms on Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Corbet (The Brutalist), Berger (Conclave) and Baker (Anora). If that’s correct, then who gets the last slot? I would assume either Gladiator II’s Scott — who is 86, five years older than the current record-holder of oldest nominee, Scorsese — or Dune: Part Two’s Villeneuve, both of whom oversaw massive films. (Crazy reminder: While Scott was nominated for his direction of the first Gladiator, Villeneuve was not nominated for his direction of the first Dune.)
But there are a number of other people who stand a shot. Mohammad Rasoulof had to flee Iran because The Seed of the Sacred Fig displeased the reigning regime, so I could see the branch rallying behind him. For I’m Still Here, Brazilian Walter Salles, an auteur whose Central Station won the best international feature Oscar 25 years ago, also strikes me as their cup of tea. Swiss-born Tim Fehlbaum helmed September 5. And then there’s the aforementioned Eastwood.
There’s also a trio of female filmmakers in contention who most voters have not heard of, but whose films they are responding to: The Substance’s Coralie Fargeat, Babygirl’s Halina Reijn and All We Imagine as Light’s Payal Kapadia.
Finally, the directors branch doesn’t usually embrace glossy productions like Wicked, but if its box office is as impressive as its reviews, as it is likely to be, they may have to reconsider that policy for Chu.
Best actor
Three contenders appear to be slam-dunks: Conclave’s Fiennes (who has somehow never won an Oscar), The Brutalist’s Brody (who holds the record for the youngest person ever to win in this category — he was 29 when he won for 2002’s The Pianist) and A Complete Unknown’s Chalamet (who would break Brody’s record by a few months if he were to win).
Right on their heels, I believe, is Sing Sing’s Domingo, a nominee last year for Rustin, who would become the first person nominated in the category in consecutive years since Denzel Washington seven and eight years ago.
The fight is for the fifth slot. My gut feeling at the moment is that it will go to Sebastian Stan for one of his two terrific 2024 transformations, which have blown away fellow actors: one into a young Trump in Briarcliff/Rich Spirit’s The Apprentice and the other, for which he received Berlin’s best actor prize, into a man with the facial condition neurofibromatosis in A24’s A Different Man. He can only be nominated for one, and his biggest impediment to a nom may be his supporters splitting down the middle. I give the edge to his performance The Apprentice.
Several past nominees seem to have a real shot: Mescal, a nominee two years ago for Aftersun, ably carries Gladiator II, and why wouldn’t he be able to ride its popularity to a nom, given that Russell Crowe won this award for the original Gladiator? Jude Law is terrific as a grizzled cop in Vertical’s The Order, but it remains to be seen if enough voters have seen the film. And Jesse Eisenberg is very good as the lead of A Real Pain, which he also wrote and directed.
A number of well-known actors are doing the rounds hoping to land the first nom of their career. Among them: Daniel Craig, who gives as bold and daring a performance as he ever has onscreen in A24’s Queer, though the movie is very long and pretty weird; John David Washington for his interpretation of Boy Willie in Netflix’s The Piano Lesson; and Richard Gere, for his performance as a cranky filmmaker giving one last interview in Kino Lorber’s Oh, Canada.
And then there’s the wild card: Joaquin Phoenix, who won this award five years ago for Joker and is now eligible for Warners’ Joker: Folie à Deux, which has been critically and commercially savaged, but not through any fault of his. He’s still pretty mesmerizing in the part.
Best actress
The three contenders with the most obvious support are Angelina Jolie, a winner 25 years ago in the supporting actress category, who has made a very strong case for a second statuette for her portrayal of opera singer Maria Callas in Netflix’s Maria (if Renée Zellweger could win a lead Oscar for Judy after having won a supporting Oscar years earlier, why couldn’t Angelina win for this one, which gets a standing ovation at every screening?); Anora‘s 25-year-old Madison, who is this year’s ingenue who everyone adores; and Sofía Gascón, who, many are shocked to discover, plays two parts very impressively in Emilia Pérez, and who would be the first openly trans person ever nominated for an acting award.
Beyond that trio, there are a bunch of admired veterans in the running, including Moore, who has never been nominated, for The Substance; past winners Nicole Kidman for a gutsy turn in A24’s Babygirl and Tilda Swinton for the juicier of two parts in The Room Next Door; past nominees Marianne Jean-Baptiste, for skillfully bringing to life a character who is pretty hard to warm up to in Bleecker Street’s Hard Truths, and 95-year-old June Squibb for Magnolia’s charming Thelma; and Brazilian Fernanda Torres, daughter of past nominee Fernanda Montenegro, who carries I’m Still Here.
But they will have to fend off the younger set, such as four-time past nominee Saoirse Ronan for her portrayal of an alcoholic in Sony Classics’ The Outrun; Harriet nominee Erivo for Wicked; Zendaya for her first real lead in a film, in Amazon/MGM’s Challengers; and Norwegian rising star Renate Reinsve, who you may remember from The Worst Person in the World and/or Presumed Innocent, and who is great in IFC’s Armand.
The long shot who is really working it at the moment: Pamela Anderson for Roadside’s The Last Showgirl. What a story it would be if the former Baywatch lifeguard were to sneak in.
Best supporting actor
The two who you can take to the bank are Gladiator II’s Denzel Washington, a two-time past winner, and The Brutalist’s Guy Pearce, one of the finest actors who has never been nominated. After that, Kieran Culkin would seem to stand a strong shot for A Real Pain, in which he plays a variation of the lovably wacky character who he has played in numerous other projects, most notably Succession.
Voters may find it impossible to resist Sing Sing’s Maclin, a man who was once incarcerated and in this film masterfully plays a man who is incarcerated. Culkin’s former Succession co-star Jeremy Strong is eerily great as Roy Cohn in The Apprentice.
But either of those two could be vulnerable to three-time past nominee Edward Norton, whose Pete Seeger in A Complete Unknown is unlike any other character he has previously played, or to one — or more — of the scene-stealers from Conclave (Tucci and Lithgow, both past nominees), Anora (Russians Yura Borisov and Mark Eydelshteyn) and September 5 (Sarsgaard and John Magaro, both great character actors who have never been nominated).
Best supporting actress
I don’t think any category has as clear a frontrunner as this one does in Saldaña, who draws upon her background as a Spanish speaker, dancer and action star to give the performance of a lifetime in Emilia Pérez.
Beyond her, my guess is that coattails will boost the fine work of Conclave’s Rossellini (her mother Ingrid Bergman won in this category for another part with little dialogue, in Murder on the Orient Express), Wicked’s standout Grande and Saldaña’s co-star Gomez.
Felicity Jones struck me as very impressive in The Brutalist, but she is exclusively in its second half, which some will not get to, and which those who do get to it often like less than the first half. So she will have to fend off Ronan for Blitz and scene-stealers from The Piano Lesson (Danielle Deadwyler, the film’s clear standout); The Substance (Margaret Qualley, who goes toe-to-toe — or should I say back-to-back — with Moore); September 5 (German actress Leonie Benesch, so good last year, as well, in The Teacher’s Lounge); Focus’ Dìdi (veteran Joan Chen); and A Complete Unknown (Monica Barbaro, magnetic as Joan Baez).
Best adapted screenplay
Conclave, an adaptation of a bestselling novel, is in. I assume that Emilia Pérez, which was loosely adapted from a 2018 novel, is also in, although musicals have a spotty track record in the screenplay categories, which is why I am not totally certain about its prospects and even less confident about Wicked’s.
The scripts for the first Gladiator and Dune films were both nominated, so one has to take seriously the prospects for the scripts for their sequels. Sing Sing has passionate supporters, so I suspect it will make the cut. But I wouldn’t rule out I’m Still Here or Nickel Boys, which are comparably powerful.
Only nine animated films have ever been nominated in either screenplay category, and only two in this one, so I’m skeptical that it will happen this year, but it could for The Wild Robot and/or Inside Out 2. (Inside Out was nominated for best original screenplay.)
Academy members love Almodóvar, but I’m not sure that his work translates, in The Room Next Door, quite as effectively as his prior films that were done in Spanish, and besides, he has only once been nominated for a script (he won best original screenplay for Talk to Her).
Lastly, the screenplays for the last two August Wilson adaptations — Fences and Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom — got nominated, so don’t count out The Piano Lesson’s.
Best original screenplay
Anora is in, which is nice, overdue news for fans of Baker. The Brutalist is tremendously creative, as well, and I can’t imagine it not being among the finalists.
After that? The writers branch has a long history of embracing smart, witty, dialogue-heavy scripts with lots of characters, which bodes well for September 5, A Real Pain and Saturday Night.
There are also precedents for something like the sexually risqué Babygirl (see: Fatal Attraction, nominated in adapted, and Tár, in original), the political dark-comedy The Apprentice (Vice and Don’t Look Up, nominated in original) and the non-English-language All We Imagine as Light, and The Seed of the Sacred Fig (two of last year’s five original screenplay nominees were in another language).
But the branch, in recent years, has also increasingly been willing to embrace truly original and frankly weird stuff — think Yorgos Lanthimos’s films, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Triangle of Sadness and May December — which is why I think The Substance should not be underestimated.
Best international feature
Basically, the question in this category is which four films will have the privilege of being runners-up to France’s Emilia Pérez.
I’ve watched quite a few of this year’s 85 submissions — and still need to watch many more — but the ones that have received widespread attention already, and that have come up most often in conversation with voters, include the aforementioned I’m Still Here (Brazil), The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Germany, by way of Iran), Armand (Norway), Mubi’s Dahomey (Senegal), Netflix’s In Her Place (Chile), Focus’ Touch (Iceland), Sony Classics’ Kneecap (Ireland) and Sideshow/Janus’ Flow (Latvia).
Others that also have vocal fans include Oscilloscope’s Universal Language (Canada), Mubi’s The Girl with the Needle (Denmark), Greenwich’s Come Closer (Israel), Metrograph’s Santosh (United Kingdom) and the still-seeking-distribution Lost Ladies (India) and Waves (Czech Republic).
Best documentary feature
The doc branch marches to its own beat. Last year, it selected as its nominees five non-English-language titles, while also passing, as it has done repeatedly in recent years, on acclaimed and popular celeb-centric docs (American Symphony and Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie).
This year? There appears to be just one sure-thing: Nat Geo’s Sugarcane, which has been named a finalist for the highest honor of every important doc community group, including the Cinema Eye Honors, DOC NYC, IDA, Critics Choice Documentary Awards and, if I may say so, SCAD Savannah Film Festival.
Others that have performed notably well with these precursor groups, and appear to be on course to make the doc branch’s shortlist of 15, include Netflix’s Daughters (CCDA, CEH, DNYC, SCAD), The Remarkable Life of Ibelin (CCDA, DNYC, IDA) and Will & Harper (CCDA, DNYC, SCAD); Kino Lorber’s Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (CEH, DNYC, IDA); MTV’s Black Box Diaries (CEH, DNYC, IDA, SCAD); Dahomey (CEH, DNYC, IDA); the self-distributed No Other Land (CEH, DNYC, IDA); Picturehouse’s Porcelain War (DNYC, SCAD); Level Ground’s Union (DNYC, SCAD), the self-distributed Queendom (DNYC, IDA); Magnolia’s Ernest Cole: Lost and Found (DNYC, IDA); Warners’ Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story (CCDA, SCAD); and Focus’ Piece by Piece (CCDA, SCAD).
That brings us to 14.
In conversations with doc branch members this season, I have found that the celeb factor does not seem to be an impediment to the prospects of Will & Harper and Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story, but can it also be overcome by other films? Worthy options include Greenwich’s Carville: Winning Is Everything, Stupid (SCAD), Amazon/MGM’s I Am: Celine Dion, Disney’s Music by John Williams (CCDA), MTV’s ¡Casa Bonita Mi Amor! and two titles from R.J. Cutler, Disney’s Elton John: Never Too Late, which he directed with John’s husband David Furnish, and Netflix’s Martha.
The Benjamin Netanyahu exposé The Bibi Files (DNYC), though still seeking U.S. distribution, is a late-breaking and über-timely doc that counts Oscar winner Alex Gibney as a producer, and should not be underestimated. Other titles that may also benefit from tackling things that are in the news include Submarine’s Separated and War Game; SDG Releasing’s controversial Am I Racist?; the self-distributed Bad Faith, Zurawski v Texas, Invisible Nation, October H8te: The Fight for the Soul of America and Gonzo for Democracy.
A few additional things to consider: A number of great docs that received Emmy recognition are also eligible for Oscar recognition, even if their distributors are downplaying them, including Netflix’s The Greatest Night in Pop (CCDA), Nat Geo’s Jim Henson Idea Man (CCDA) and Apple’s Girls State. Showbiz-related docs may have a particular appeal, and options — in addition to Will & Harper, Super/Man, The Greatest Night in Pop and Jim Henson — include Merchant Ivory, William Shatner: You Can Call Me Bill, Happy Clothes: A Film about Patricia Field and Remembering Gene Wilder. Netflix’s Skywalkers: A Love Story, a doc about the most daring adventurers since those featured in Oscar winner Free Solo, has some very passionate supporters in the branch and could be a dark horse.
Best animated feature
By opening up voting to determine the animated feature shortlist and nominations to all Academy members who wish to participate, rather than just the members of the animation branch (formerly the short films/feature animation branch), the Academy theoretically has boosted the prospects for high-profile studio films over low-profile indies.
That’s not particularly relevant to studio films like Inside Out 2, The Wild Robot and Netflix’s Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, as they start out with plenty of support. It might help some of the other studio films in the race, like Disney’s Moana 2 and Universal/Dreamworks’s Kung Fu Panda 4. But it remains to be seen if/how it will impact some of the great indie animated films that are eligible, including Flow and IFC’s Memoir of a Snail.
The most interesting case is Piece by Piece. It’s very well done and entertaining — but filmmaker Morgan Neville is new to animation, it’s a celebrity-centric film and 2014’s The Lego Movie, probably the closest thing to Piece by Piece in terms of style of animation, was infamously snubbed. That said, The Lego Movie came along before the new system of voting was employed, and I think Piece by Piece could be a beneficiary of it now being in place.
Best original song
Musicals, unsurprisingly, tend to do well in this category. The first installment of Wicked has no original songs, but Emilia Pérez has two (Camille and Clement Ducol’s “El Mal,” co-written with Audiard and performed by Saldaña, and “Mi Camino,” performed by Gomez, both of which seem likely to be nominated), as does Moana 2 (“Beyond” being a better bet than “Can I Get a Chee Hoo?”).
Apart from those, I’d keep a close eye on tunes from Elton John (“Never Too Late” from Elton John: Never Too Late), a winner in this category in 1995 and 2020; Pharrell Williams (“Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece); Maren Morris (“Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot); and Kristen Wiig (“Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper).
And never, ever bet against Diane Warren, even for a song in a movie that no one you know has actually seen. This year, she’s up for “The Journey” from Netflix’s The Six Triple Eight.
Below-the-line categories
Few are the craft and technical categories that won’t include Wicked, Gladiator II and Dune: Part Two. Also likely to pop up in multiple places: The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Blitz and Beetlejuice Beetlejuice.
I will post a fully-updated Feinberg Forecast, covering all Oscars categories except for the three devoted to short films, on Monday.
