As award season heats up, here are a dozen movies that could take the big prize — and how they might do it.
Anora, Conclave and September 5
Courtesy of Neon; Philippe Antonello/Focus Features; Jürgen Olczyk/Paramount Pictures
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‘Anora’
Image Credit: Courtesy of Neon What Happens: An escort cuts a deal with an oligarch’s son. Then the gangsters get involved.
Reason to Believe: Three of the last four Palme d’Or winners have made the best picture cut for Neon — and one won (Parasite).
Reason to Doubt: Are the indie-ish Baker and his outré visions too much for some voters? -
‘Blitz’
Image Credit: Parisa Taghizadeh/Apple TV+ What Happens: A single mother and her son are separated in Blitz-era London.
Reason to Believe: Period cred and past Oscar darling Steve McQueen.
Reason to Doubt: Saving Private Ryan, Dunkirk, 1917: World War movies these days tend to come up short. -
‘The Brutalist’
Image Credit: Courtesy of A24 What Happens: An architect who escaped the Holocaust makes his way to the U.S. to live an epic life.
Reason to Believe: A sweeping vision that clocks in at more than three hours.
Reason to Doubt: A sweeping vision that clocks in at more than three hours. -
‘A Complete Unknown’
Image Credit: Courtesy of Searchlight Pictures What Happens: Bob Dylan plugs in at Newport, and everyone needs shelter from the storm.
Reason to Believe: After zooming ahead with Ford v Ferrari, Mangold seeks the finish line. Also, Timothée Chalamet as an icon.
Reason to Doubt: Does the rock-folk tension seem consequential enough in 2024? -
‘Conclave’
Image Credit: Philippe Antonello/Focus Features What Happens: A pope dies, and everyone wants the big job.
Reason to Believe: Delicious fun in serious clothing.
Reason to Doubt: Is it about enough? Also, a divisive ending. -
‘Dune: Part Two’
Image Credit: Courtesy of Warner Bros. What Happens: More adventures of Paul Atreides as he forms new unions and wages new wars.
Reason to Believe: A franchise and a director that have been building momentum for years.
Reason to Doubt: Distant-planet epics and March releases often are forgotten. -
‘Emilia Pérez’
Image Credit: PAGE 114/WHY NOT PRODUCTIONS/PATHÉ FILMS/FRANCE 2 CINÉMA/Netflix What Happens: Your typical Spanish-language cartel thriller/trans-themed family drama with musical elements.
Reason to Believe: The sheer audacity, the relevant topicality.
Reason to Doubt: Is the Never-Netflix voter still a thing? -
‘Gladiator II’
Image Credit: Aidan Monaghan/Paramount Pictures What Happens: A grown-up Lucius comes back to Rome to gladiate glory back to his people.
Reason to Believe: Nostalgia … for both the Roman period and the days of studio historical epics.
Reason to Doubt: “Didn’t we honor this movie in 2001?” -
‘The Seed of The Sacred Fig’
Image Credit: Courtesy of Neon What Happens: A family in repressive Iran is torn apart by politics.
Reason to Believe: Geopolitical resonance and a director who escaped Iran with his movie.
Reason to Doubt: The best picture doesn’t often do long, foreign-language dramas set halfway around the world. -
‘September 5’
Image Credit: Jürgen Olczyk/Paramount Pictures What Happens: One day in Munich in the ABC News control room during the 1972 Olympics.
Reason to Believe: Sorkin-esque urgency about big media topics.
Reason to Doubt: Global indies can struggle without as many crewmembers and filmmakers that voters know. Plus the fraught Israeli-Palestinian backdrop. -
‘Wicked’
Image Credit: Courtesy of Universal Pictures What Happens: Witches Elphaba and Glinda begin their journeys.
Reason to Believe: Is it Cats or is it Chicago?
Reason to Doubt: Is it Chicago or is it Cats? -
‘The Wild Robot’
Image Credit: Universal Pictures/DreamWorks Animation What Happens: Roz the Robot lands on an animal island and learns how to feel.
Reason to Believe: An AI movie that’s heartfelt and accessible. Also, it’s already a hit.
Reason to Doubt: Only three animated movies have ever been nominated; none have won.This story appeared in the Oct. 30 issue of The Hollywood Reporter magazine. Click here to subscribe.
