Why Makeup Sales Are Declining While Skin Care and Fragrance Are Up

Despite historical precedent that the opposite should be the case, makeup sales are beginning to decline.

Data from NIQ shows that total makeup sales dropped 1 percent from January through October 2024, with the downturn accelerating particularly during the last 12 weeks of that period. Though this may not seem like a steep drop-off, it is a far cry from the category’s performance just a year prior — and it makes cosmetics the only beauty category to see an overall decline in sales.

“Makeup has been slow this year,” said Anna Mayo, NIQ’s vice president of beauty, adding that “it is face and eye cosmetics which are dragging it down; lip cosmetics are seeing growth driven by lip glosses, stains, liners and balms.”

Indeed, lip cosmetics are makeup’s bright spot in both the prestige and mass channels, where Circana reports makeup sales grew 5 percent through the third quarter of 2024 (prestige) but decreased 3 percent in the mass sector. While makeup is still seeing growth in the prestige market, the growth has been dwindling at an accelerated rate.

Consider that for most of 2023 makeup was prestige beauty’s fastest-growing category, posting steady double-digit gains. Then the holidays came around and not only did skin care overtake makeup for the top spot — hair care and fragrance, too, were suddenly growing faster for the first time that year. (During the fourth quarter of 2023, skin care grew 15 percent in prestige; fragrance grew 13 percent; hair grew 12 percent, and makeup netted out at 11 percent).

What was a plot twist then has remained a pattern today: Circana data shows fragrance is currently prestige beauty’s fastest-growing category, and hair care is number two. While skin care only grew 3 percent in prestige through the third quarter of 2024 (less than makeup’s 5 percent), the difference is that skin care is still growing in mass.

“I do think it comes down to where the innovation is coming from,” said Mayo, adding that the “Lipstick Index” — a term coined by Leonard Lauder to describe the phenomenon in which beauty sales increase during times of economic hardship — still checks out. It’s just that makeup sales might not necessarily continue leading that charge.

“People are still prioritizing beauty and making room for it, but there are choices which are perhaps shifting to other categories. A lot of innovation focus seems very much on skin and body care right now — and of course, fragrance, which is seeing a ton of interest,” she continued.

Olivia Stelmaszczyk, a beauty and fashion research analyst at Euromonitor, pointed to consumers’ growing wellness focus as another reason for the Lipstick Index’s broadening horizons. “Today’s consumer has more options for mood-boosting beauty purchases; even fragrance has transformed into a more self-care-oriented category, so some of that Lipstick Index spend is evolving beyond makeup.”

There’s also the matter of online shopping growth, with NIQ tracking a 4 percent online makeup sales increase in the category and a 1 percent in-store makeup sales decline last year. Euromonitor data, meanwhile, shows makeup shoppers buy online at a higher frequency than any other beauty category. (Eighteen percent of makeup shoppers report buying online versus 17 percent for skin care and 14 percent for hair care.)

“Impulse purchasing just isn’t the same online as being able to simply grab something off of a store display,” said Mayo, pointing, too, to the drug channel’s recent practice of putting products under lock and key as another barrier to impulse shopping. “That’s impacting categories as well.”

Plus there are indications that consumers may be paring down their makeup routines in certain regards, with NIQ seeing a slowdown in sales of contour, eye shadows and eyeliners.

“Consumers are prioritizing skin health and adopting more minimalist beauty routines,” said Rich Gersten, cofounder of investment firm True Beauty Ventures, adding that “with an oversaturated market and intense competition, many makeup brands struggle to differentiate themselves and capture meaningful market share.”

According to CreatorIQ, makeup isn’t showing signs of slowdown in terms of influencer content and social buzz, however.

“If makeup brands are bracing for a downturn, they could in fact be considering ramping up their creator marketing efforts to help increase sales, so we shouldn’t necessarily expect to see the correlation between a downtown in sales and a downturn in creator efforts,” said Alex Rawitz, director of research and insights, CreatorIQ.