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It’s no secret that Ozempic isn’t going anywhere, but the weight loss drug category does seem to be rapidly evolving.
According to J.P. Morgan Research, up to 30 million people could be on a weight loss drug in the United States by 2030. Meanwhile, the category is expected to reach $100 billion in revenues by that time, per the firm. Additionally, doctors say 50 percent of the U.S. population could be eligible to be on these drugs by 2030, making the market opportunity even larger.
“Obesity is the number-one disease in the United States,” said Dr. Angela Fitch, obesity expert and founder and chief medical officer of weight health care practice Knownwell.
While the weight loss drug category is booming, it is also changing, with new drugs in development, challenges in the health care system and a new presidential administration on the way.
Here, a look at what experts are predicting in the weight loss drug category for 2025.
1. Obesity drugs are only going to become more common.
With the so-called Ozempic boom, consumers are more aware of these drugs then ever and are consequently asking their doctors about them. Additionally, the drugs are extremely effective, so patients want them and doctors are supportive in prescribing them.
“These medications are the most effective thing we’ve ever had for acute treatment of obesity,” said Dr. Alexandra Sowa, obesity expert, founder of GLP-1 support brand SoWell and author of “The Ozempic Revolution.” “More and more people are going to be on these drugs. The users are going to continue to increase.”
In addition to doctor support and patient awareness, the drugs are more widely available. Hims & Hers, Wisp, Found, PlushCare and more offer online programs that offer the drugs, making the prescription process a bit more seamless. Additionally, manufacturers have significantly increased supply of these drugs to meet the ever-growing demand.
2. These drugs will impact all other categories — food, wellness, beauty and retail.
Weight loss drugs have already made major waves across other categories. The supplement market in particular was one of the first to respond with complementary and supplementary products. For example, a slew of brands like SoWell and Replenza launched this year which promise products that support the GLP-1 user’s journey, boosting the drug’s benefits and deterring side effects.
“[These launches] say we know that this user is here to stay, but also we need to create things that are made just for them,” said Sowa.
Additionally, retailers like The Vitamin Shoppe and GNC have dedicated sections to GLP-1 users, and Nestlé rolled out Vital Pursuit, a line of meals for this customer.
Meanwhile, some brands opted for a more competitive approach, offering natural alternatives to drugs — think Lemme’s GLP-1 Daily, $90; Arrae’s MB-1, $65; Kind Patches GLP-1 Patches, $15; Pendulum’s GLP-1 Probiotic, $64, and Veracity’s Metabolism Ignite, $75. Veracity saw such success with its product that it has since shifted its business model to focus more specifically on metabolic health.
“The market really tells you something is needed and working, and so what we wanted to do is obviously double down and focus on that,” said Veracity founder Allie Egan, who said the business had grown 17 times following the launch of Metabolism Ignite in 2023.
While wellness and food channels are the most obvious to be impacted, other categories are seeing change. For example, aestheticians like Dangene Enterprise report an uptick in skin tightening services to address loose skin post-weight loss.
3. People will talk about alternative ways of using Ozempic, but it’s not necessarily a good thing.
As these drugs have become more commonplace, consumers, not necessarily eligible, have begun to discuss how they can use the drug differently than what is suggested. For example, GLP-1 microdosing, taking small amounts of the drug rather than the intended dosage, recently became a trend, something doctors are quick to advise against.
“We’ll hear about it more, but I think it’s something that people should be skeptical of,” said Sowa. “This isn’t just a fun lifestyle trend. This is a drug.”
Concurrently, with the conversation around celebrity usage always prominent, some are suggesting using these drugs before a big event or after the holidays and vacations. Doctors also advise against this, noting episodic usage is not only dangerous but also will reduce the efficacy should the user need the drug in the future.
“I don’t want it to be usage like it’s happening now, which is very episodic, not around a chronic disease model,” said Fitch.
4. New drugs are coming, and they might be better.
New drugs are in development and one could hit the market by the end of 2025.
“The FDA has been accelerating approval of these drugs [and] the process because there’s such high demand and need,” said Sowa.
With that, new formulas, like pills, are in the works, which would shake up the market even more by offering an alternative to weekly injections. In addition, new hormones are being added to these drugs. For example, Ozempic is a single GLP-1 agonist, while Mounjaro is a double agonist, meaning it targets two hormones.
“There are ones with three hormones, so [the drugs are] getting a little bit more sophisticated,” Sowa said.
5. New indications will continue to come out beyond weight loss.
With new research coming out all the time, it’s clear these drugs aren’t just for weight loss but rather a slew of conditions associated with obesity and beyond.
“We’re going to see them approved for other things, like we’ve seen for semaglutide with cardiovascular approval,” said Fitch, pointing specifically to sleep apnea and fatty liver disease.
While early research shows positive results for diseases like addiction and Alzheimer’s, Fitch said these are much further out.
6. There will definitely be some challenges.
While there are an array of bright spots in the category, experts predict major challenges, particularly in terms of insurance coverage and the conversation surrounding the drugs.
Doctors are starting to see changes in insurance, with patients losing coverage in the new year after being previously covered, or having copays significantly increased.
“We’re going to see, in 2025, a lot less coverage of these medications across the board through insurance,” said Sowa. “We are starting to see this in my practice.”
Not only do the insurance changes present financial issues, but they could also have a major impact on the patient’s success.
“We know what happens once you take it away. The disease of obesity rears its head again, and all of the health issues that come with it come back. [Patients are] going to be left struggling [with] what to do. Pay out of pocket? It’s quite high. Turn to compounding? It’s unregulated… That’s a very frustrating place for people to be,” Sowa said.
Fitch added: “It is a chronic disease that you have to treat ongoing,” contending that trying to take a patient off the drugs should be considered malpractice.
While coverage changes and copay increases are imminent, Fitch predicted that, with supply on the rise and competitors entering the market, an eventual price decrease could happen.
Additionally, experts predict the conversation around weight loss drugs could shift with the new administration of Donald Trump, as Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who has been nominated to lead the Department of Health, has not supported the usage of the drugs. However, in a recent CNBC interview he shifted his take slightly, saying they “have a place.” Meanwhile, Elon Musk, who will co-lead the new Department of Government Efficiency, is a staunch supporter.
“GLP-1s have had a rise in popularity and acceptance, and it’s been wonderful, and I worry about the potential backswing in the next year,” Sowa said, though she emphasized the drugs will not be going away.
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